{"id":18694,"date":"2020-03-06T05:16:53","date_gmt":"2020-03-06T05:16:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.footprintnetwork.org\/2020\/03\/06\/america-chose-the-path-to-self-destruction-what-about-the-rest-of-us-copy\/"},"modified":"2020-03-09T18:17:18","modified_gmt":"2020-03-09T18:17:18","slug":"jour-dereglement-perspective","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.footprintnetwork.org\/2020\/03\/06\/jour-dereglement-perspective\/","title":{"rendered":"Le Jour du D\u00e9r\u00e8glement nous met-t-il sur la bonne piste\u00a0?"},"content":{"rendered":"
par Mathis Wackernagel, fondateur et President, Global Footprint Network<\/h5>\n
\"\"
Mathis Wackernagel<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Les Fran\u00e7ais ont d\u00e9sormais l\u2019habitude. Chaque ann\u00e9e \u00e0 une date pr\u00e9cise, les habitants de la plan\u00e8te sont inform\u00e9s qu\u2019ils ont d\u00e9pass\u00e9 le budget \u00e9cologique pour l\u2019ann\u00e9e. C\u2019est le Jour du D\u00e9passement. Le Jour du D\u00e9r\u00e8glement s\u2019inscrit dans cette strat\u00e9gie de communication grand-public que l\u2019ONG am\u00e9ricaine Global Footprint Network pratique avec succ\u00e8s depuis 2006. Dans ce contexte, il nous parait essentiel de pr\u00e9ciser plusieurs points afin d\u2019\u00e9viter la confusion des genres.<\/p>\n

Le 5 mars \u00e9tait le Jour du D\u00e9r\u00e8glement, inspir\u00e9 du Jour du D\u00e9passement (29 juillet en 2019) ou Jour du D\u00e9passement de la France (14 mai en 2020, soit la date du Jour du D\u00e9passement si l\u2019humanit\u00e9 enti\u00e8re avait le niveau de consommation des habitants de la France.)<\/p>\n

La date du Jour du D\u00e9passement est calcul\u00e9e en r\u00e9ponse \u00e0 une question simple et empirique\u00a0: quelle est la demande humaine sur la nature par comparaison avec la capacit\u00e9 de r\u00e9g\u00e9n\u00e9ration de la biosph\u00e8re (budget de la Terre)\u00a0? La m\u00e9thode de comptabilit\u00e9 utilise des donn\u00e9es transparentes publi\u00e9es par les Nations Unies afin d\u2019\u00e9tablir ce bilan \u00e9cologique.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>
Infographie extraite de la Strat\u00e9gie Nationale Bas-Carbone (Minist\u00e8re de la Transition \u00e9cologique et sociale)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Par contraste, le budget de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence pour calculer la date du Jour du D\u00e9r\u00e8glement est celui qui a \u00e9t\u00e9 ent\u00e9rin\u00e9 par la Strat\u00e9gie Nationale Bas-Carbone (SNBC)<\/a>, feuille de route pour lutter contre le changement climatique en vertu de la Loi de Transition Energ\u00e9tique pour la Croissance Verte (LTECV). La date est determin\u00e9e en contrastant les \u00e9missions totales de gaz \u00e0 effet de serre des Fran\u00e7ais d\u2019une part (y compris l\u2019\u00e9nergie grise de la consommation) avec le budget pr\u00e9visionnel des \u00e9missions cens\u00e9 garantir la neutralit\u00e9 carbone en 2050, conform\u00e9ment \u00e0 la loi. En vertu des conclusions des rapports du Minist\u00e8re de la Transition \u00e9cologique et solidaire affirmant que les \u00e9cosyst\u00e8mes de la France pourront absorber 80 millions de tonnes d\u2019\u00e9quivalent CO2<\/sub> par an en 2050, les \u00e9missions g\u00e9n\u00e9r\u00e9es sur le territoire seront plafonn\u00e9es \u00e0 80 millions de tonnes d\u2019\u00e9quivalent CO2<\/sub> annuels. Dans la mesure o\u00f9 l\u2019empreinte carbone actuelle de la France est de 450 million tonnes d\u2019\u00e9quivalent CO2<\/sub> par an, le budget est \u00e9puis\u00e9 le 5 mars (80 Mt\/450 Mt x 366 jours.)<\/p>\n

Cette date donne une indication utile quant au chemin qui reste \u00e0 parcourir \u00e0 la France pour atteindre son objectif de 2050. Mais elle ne r\u00e9v\u00e8le pas l\u2019ampleur de la t\u00e2che n\u00e9cessaire pour respecter l\u2019Accord de Paris sur le Climat. Car tout l\u2019\u00e9difice repose sur une hypoth\u00e8se extraordinairement optimiste du Minist\u00e8re de la Transition \u00e9cologique et solidaire, selon laquelle l’objectif de neutralit\u00e9 carbone \u00e0 2050 est compatible avec cet accord. Malheureusement, tel n’est pas le cas. Le GIEC<\/a> a r\u00e9v\u00e9l\u00e9 en 2014 qu’une concentration dans l’atmosph\u00e8re de 450 ppm d’\u00e9quivalent CO2<\/sub> nous donne \u00e0 peine 66% de chance de ne pas d\u00e9passer 2\u00b0C de hausse moyenne mondiale de temp\u00e9rature et une fen\u00eatre plus \u00e9troite encore pour plafonner \u00e0 1,5\u00b0C. L’agence am\u00e9ricaine des oc\u00e9ans et de l’atmosph\u00e8re (NOAA<\/a>) a signal\u00e9 que la concentration actuelle pourrait d\u00e9j\u00e0 \u00eatre de 501 ppm d’\u00e9quivalent CO2<\/sub> (extrapolation \u00e0 partir des donn\u00e9es de 2018.) En d’autres termes, nous avons d\u00e9j\u00e0 \u00e9puis\u00e9 le budget carbone\u00a0; viser la neutralit\u00e9 carbone en 2050 sera largement insuffisant si nous entendons r\u00e9ellement atteindre les objectifs de l’Accord de Paris.<\/p>\n

Quant au scenario de s\u00e9questration de carbone tel qu\u2019envisag\u00e9 par la SNBC, il risque aussi de se r\u00e9v\u00e9ler trop optimiste. La recherche a peine \u00e0 suivre l\u2019impact du r\u00e9chauffement climatique sur les \u00e9cosyst\u00e8mes naturels.\u00a0 Par exemple, un r\u00e9cent article dans la revue scientifique Nature<\/a> affirme que, contrairement aux pr\u00e9visions, la performance des for\u00eats tropicales en mati\u00e8re d\u2019absorption du carbone est en chute en raison de la s\u00e8cheresse.<\/p>\n

A ce titre, l\u2019exercice du Jour du D\u00e9r\u00e8glement nous parait davantage bas\u00e9 sur des projections sp\u00e9culatives que des donn\u00e9es sur laquelle la science peut s\u2019appuyer. En r\u00e9alit\u00e9, la situation est plus tendue que la date du 5 mars nous incite \u00e0 croire et exige que nous osions poser les bonnes questions pour atteindre le but auquel nous aspirons tous\u00a0: vivre en harmonie avec les ressources \u00e9cologiques de la plan\u00e8te afin d\u2019assurer un avenir \u00e0 la jeune g\u00e9n\u00e9ration.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

par Mathis Wackernagel, fondateur et President, Global Footprint Network Les Fran\u00e7ais ont d\u00e9sormais l\u2019habitude. Chaque ann\u00e9e \u00e0 une date pr\u00e9cise, les habitants de la plan\u00e8te sont inform\u00e9s qu\u2019ils ont d\u00e9pass\u00e9 le budget \u00e9cologique pour l\u2019ann\u00e9e. C\u2019est le Jour du D\u00e9passement. Le Jour du D\u00e9r\u00e8glement s\u2019inscrit dans cette strat\u00e9gie de communication grand-public que l\u2019ONG am\u00e9ricaine Global […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false},"categories":[12],"tags":[105],"class_list":["post-18694","post","type-post","status-publish","hentry","category-blog","tag-featured"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nLe Jour du D\u00e9r\u00e8glement nous met-t-il sur la bonne piste\u00a0? - Global Footprint Network<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.footprintnetwork.org\/2020\/03\/06\/jour-dereglement-perspective\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Le Jour du D\u00e9r\u00e8glement nous met-t-il sur la bonne piste\u00a0? - Global Footprint Network\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"par Mathis Wackernagel, fondateur et President, Global Footprint Network Les Fran\u00e7ais ont d\u00e9sormais l\u2019habitude. Chaque ann\u00e9e \u00e0 une date pr\u00e9cise, les habitants de la plan\u00e8te sont inform\u00e9s qu\u2019ils ont d\u00e9pass\u00e9 le budget \u00e9cologique pour l\u2019ann\u00e9e. C\u2019est le Jour du D\u00e9passement. 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